Despite what many might expect several advertising surveys and analysts report are indicating that online advertising continues to grow even as the economy slows. However, it is notable that all collected research prior to the crisis shock of the last two weeks.

Duncan Riley of the Inquisitr.com, covered several of these early web advertising reports.

The general consensus is that web advertising is not likely to continue its previous accelerated grow, but will continue to grow through an apparent economic downshift. Some of the highlights of these reports include (Inquisitr):

• ZenithOptimedia expects global online ad spending to hit $51.1 billion in 2008, $61.7 billion in 2009, and $75.8 billion in 2010. Decelerating their estimates from a similar June 2008 report (Clickz )
• Wachovia reduces Internet ad spend growth projections to 10 percent in 2008, down from earlier projections of 15 percent (Inquisitr)
• Lehman/Barclays reduce their estimates from 23.4 percent to 16.9 percent (Inquisitr)

Jordan Golson, of the Industry Standard cites the recent “market bloodbath” as a reason to slash online ad estimates–hypothesizing with UBS analyst Ben Schachter:

“We see no business model based on advertising or consumer spending that will be immune to a downturn” (Industry Standard)

Duncan then rushes in to give an investor pitch on why his revenue (blog and web 2.0 valuations) is certain to soar in the coming market:

“More money is going to be spent online, just not as much as some had previously predicted. If there’s growth in web advertising, there’s growth in revenue to blogs and 2.0 companies that rely on advertising.” (Inquisitr)

I think Inman does a better job of analyzing these slowed online ad growth forecasts. Digging into the PricewaterhouseCoopers Internet advertising revenue report, they revealed:

“Internet advertising revenue grew 15.2 percent during the first half of 2008, to $11.5 billion, according to research by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. Internet advertising revenue declined slightly between the first and second quarter, however, from $5.8 billion to $5.7 billion.”

This reflects some retraction, but also typical cyclical trends in ad spending. Even more interesting for mortgage and real estate lead generation readers and those attempting to analyze publicly traded companies like Bankrate.com and Tree.com is the citation of Borell Associates. This company tracks ad spending by real estate and mortgage companies and reports:

“Borrell estimates that spending on online advertising by real estate-related companies and mortgage lenders grew by nearly 20 percent in 2007, to $9.1 billion, and that it will continue to grow through the downturn — but at a much slower pace than during the height of the boom.”

“While online ad spending by real estate companies and mortgage lenders grew by 30.4 percent in 2006, to $7.6 billion, Borrell is forecasting that annual growth in real estate-related online advertising will slow to 11.3 percent in 2008 and 5.1 percent next year.” (Inman)

My two cents? I think it is as simple as this:

1. Businesses routinely cut marketing and advertising expense in an economic downturn
2. Web advertising is not immune; however, insulated somewhat
3. Internet advertising (especially lead generation) is efficient and measurable
4. Online advertising continues to appreciate a consumer and advertiser behavior shift from offline media to online media

Support?

“By 2013, Borrell expects the Internet will capture 33.1 percent of a projected $35.3 billion real estate-related ad spend, compared to a 19.6 percent share of the $29.9 billion expended in 2005. Internet-related advertising includes ads placed by real estate agents and brokers, rental property management firms, real estate developers, and mortgage originators.”
“From 2005-13, Borrell projects that newspapers could see their share of the real estate advertising pie slip from 25.8 percent to 19 percent. The company’s analysts thinks direct mail will only account for 6.3 percent of the real estate-related ad spend in 2013, compared to 14.3 percent in 2005.” (Inman)