I’ve had several clients recently ask me the same question: “Where’s the lead market headed next?”

Well, I’m no soothsayer or seer, but I think these kind of trends are pretty easy to breakdown into reasonable predictions. Especially since the Internet is full of observable information on key elements of the lead generation market. So, better than giving you a one line prediction. I’ll give you a freebie and walk you through some of my analysis.

It’s the Economy, Stupid!

It really does start with this infamous quote, posted prominently in Clinton’s campaign headquarters by James Carville. Internet lead generation is driven by companies looking for buyers. And buyers (demand) is largely driven by the economy.

In good times people are looking to spend money. In bad times they are looking to save money. In the worst of times they are looking for survival.

In the last decade the lead generation market has experienced each of these markets. The challenge has been in spotting the transitions. The instability in the markets, and frequent government intervention, have made spotting inflection points even tougher. Despite the difficulty in timing the lead generation market (like timing the stock market) following long term economic trends will land you in the right market every time.

Lead Generation Lives on Internet Traffic

Probably an even more obvious, or at least it should be, leading indicator of attractive lead markets is consumer behavior. Nowhere is this easier to observe than on the Internet.

Monitoring search trends is an easy way to observe changes in consumer demand. One of my favorite ways to do this is Google Trends. Let’s take a quick look…

This shows pretty clearly that insurance has the most search volume currently. You can also see the recent domination of education traffic as well. All this goes to show you where the consumer demand is–and lead generation companies will naturally adjust to these traffic changes. After all the money is in the traffic.

One other interesting thing that Google trends can do for you is help segment that traffic. Are you interested in regional distribution?

Or, maybe you want to know what kind of insurance to focus on.

It looks like health insurance is your best bet. I think that’s and economy thing again. See how economic and government factors (maybe even 24/7 news cycles) play into driving consumer demand (search traffic)?

Government Regulation

I’ve mentioned government effects a couple of times already. That’s because government legislation and regulation put a wrinkle into analyzing pure consumer behavior. In many cases the government seeks to moderate extreme swings in consumer behavior. Therefore, you have to factor in government initiative and programs into the true movement of the lead generation market.

In some cases, like loan modification, government actions can create whole markets. In others, like debt or student loans, the government may kill off whole markets. But, generally they will just adjust the highs, lows, and length of markets. Two good examples are the impact the government has had on interest rates and now on health insurance.

What’s next in lead generation? Follow the economy, the traffic, and the government and you’ll never be too far away from the center of the action.